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Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market
Advisory Service
Daily Service Sample Article
(12/13/05)
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
SOYBEANS: While Mondays sharp advance in
Jan soybeans was obviously MUCH LARGER than expected, the 6.02 high did manage
to hold BELOW the Nov 14 WAVE-[4]-OF-ONE-LESSER-DEGREE; at 6.02 3/4-to-6.05.
Consequently, my preferred wave-count continues to call for a decline to AT
LEAST the 5.32-5.22 level. At this point, however, because a more plausible case
can now be made for a DOUBLE-THREE correction off the June top, there is a
significantly better change that the next “leg-down” will mark a much more
important bottom (see ALTERNATE COUNT from the Oct quarterly). Anyhow, in the
event Jan beans do exceed the 6.02 3/4-6.05 level initially, then we’ll probably
confirm a larger rally to at least the 6.25 3/4-6.32 level. However, because I
am currently UNABLE to make a case for a MAJOR BOTTOM, even this development
will probably NOT be enough (by itself) to turn me to the Bull camp. Near-term
resistance for the Jan soybeans is now at 5.85-5.88 3/4, 5.92-5.99 and 6.02
3/4-6.05, with the support at 5.82-5.78 ½, 5.70-5.69 and 5.60-5.57 ½.
CORN: As long as the current rally in
March corn does not exceed 4-to-5-trading days, AND key resistance at about 2.07
3/4-2.12 3/4 also holds, traders and hedgers should remain short. Note, that
this resistance area yields the 5.7%, 9.1% and 14.58%-retracement combination
from the 1996, 2004 and 2005 highs via the continuation chart, AND a
14.58%-retracement from contract high-to-contract low in March futures (2.10
3/4). Anyhow, assuming a “buy-signal” does NOT occur here, upon the Dec 14
expiration of the Dec contract, my projection analysis will indicate AT LEAST a
re-test of the 1.91 ½-1.88 3/4 long-term support in March futures, with an
eventual drop to 1.79 ½ possible. Near-term support, however, is at 2.04
3/4-2.02 1/4 and 1.97 ½.
WHEAT: Since last weeks 2.92 ½ low in the
nearby Dec wheat not only FAILED to reach my next support area at 2.88-2.84, but
a completed, (5)-or-(9)-wave-
count is also NOT in place from the Sept peak, it appears highly unlikely that a
significant bottom is at hand, yet. Thus, IF prices happen to trace-out another,
a-b-c rally of EQUAL DURATION to the last 3-bounces, or 4-to-6-
trading days, we’ll probably look to add to our short-position. By the way,
traders should also note, that once the Dec wheat goes off-the-board on Wed Dec
14, I will have a very significant resistance cluster in the 3.20 3/4-3.25 range
basis the March contract. At that point, the 19.1%-30.9%-retracement combination
from the 1996 and 2003 highs will be at 3.22 3/4-3.23 1/4, AND the
30.9%-50%-retracement combination from the Sept continuation chart high and the
equivalent high in March futures will occur between 3.20 3/4-and-3.25. Support
for March wheat is at 3.03 1/4-2.99 ½ and 2.88-2.84.
COTTON: Considering that the
intermediate-term pattern in cotton remains BEARISH, AND recent lows in BOTH the
Dec and March contracts also FAILED to reach their 46.25-45.69 and 50.20-49.82
support levels, respectively, it certainly looks like the current rally ought to
be SOLD. However, because my best resistance cluster at 55.22-55.70 is a
substantial distance ABOVE the closest resistance area, or 53.66-54.08, I guess
we’ll wait another day or two BEFORE giving a sell recommendation. Note, IF we
can get a completed, a-b-c, or DOUBLE-THREE within the next few days, then we’ll
hopefully be able to determine which resistance area to sell.
HOGS: [No Change] Again, provided the
nearby Dec hogs do NOT fall back BELOW support at 61.60-61.27, or about
65.20-to-64.22 basis the Feb contract, the near-term pattern will indicate that
a larger, wave-(c) advance is developing here. In which case, the MINIMUM
OBJECTIVE for the Feb contract will likely be at the 70.85-71.25 level, with an
eventual target at 73.65-73.77 possible. Traders should be aware however, that
until Feb hogs EITHER exceed resistance at 68.05-68.70, OR the Dec contract
goes-off-the-board (Dec 14), the nearby contract could still spike-down to the
long-term support at 59.65-59.00.
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
COFFEE: Since last weeks “timing”
buy-signal in March coffee has now been followed by a STRONG PENETRATION of key
resistance at 98.35-98.55, it is HIGHLY LIKELY that we have confirmed a
completed decline from the Oct/Nov highs. In which case, prices should now stage
AT LEAST a wave-(c) rally back to the 109.70-110.30 level. As you know by now,
however, my PREFERRED wave-count actually indicates that prices are just now
entering a primary-wave-[3]-section-up, within a MUCH LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-C
advance. Under this scenario, we should have some fantastic opportunities to add
to our long-position, as the eventual (upside) objective ought to be well-above
the 137.00 level. Anyhow, assuming a fully-pronounced, 5-wave rally does
develop-off the Dec 5 low (94.00), we’ll soon be looking to ADD. Near-term
support for March coffee is now at 98.40-97.60 and 96.90-96.45, with the
resistance at 101.05-102.00, 103.20-103.85, 105.35-106.00 and 108.05-108.15.
COCOA: While the long-range pattern in
cocoa continues to indicate that the current rally will present a excellent
selling opportunity, Monday’s penetration of the 1461-1487 resistance area
suggest that a considerably larger, wave-(c) section up is probably unfolding.
Thus, once it becomes possible to label a completed, 5-or-9-wave pattern off the
Nov bottom, we’ll attempt to re-enter the short-side. The next closest area of
key resistance is at 1513-1519. However, there is a distinct possibility that
prices will reach FAR BETTER RESISTANCE; at 1554-1582. This area yields the
23.6%-50%-retracement combination from the 2003 and 2005 highs, as well as a
38.2%-retracement of the Mar-Nov decline basis Mar futures. Near-term support
for Mar cocoa is now at 1457, 1446 and 1436-1427.
OJ: Since the recent move to new rally
highs in Jan OJ has been followed by yet another new high, the overall pattern
continues to indicate that a HUGE, upward extension is probably unfolding. Note,
because wave-[1] up was 39.45-cents in length, and wave-[3] will likely be AT
LEAST 61.8%-to-76.4%-the length of wave-[1], the nearby contract could easily
rally to at least the 139.80/145.55 level(s), BEFORE we see another multi-week
set back. Of course, it’s always VERY RISKY trading during the “freeze season”.
So, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see IF any decent buying opportunities
develop. Near-term resistance for Jan OJ is at 127.30-130.35 and 137.10-139.80,
with the support now at 126.65-126.50, 124.10-123.85 and 120.00-119.60.
SILVER: [Except for the *Support-No
change] Since the advance in silver has now reached what should be VERY POWERFUL
RESISTANCE in the 8.98-9.175 range basis Dec, and about 9.075-9.27 in the March
contract, it looks like the LARGEST PULLBACK since the end of Oct will begin in
the next few days. Note, that this key area yields the 14.58%-retracement
projection from the all-time-high, as well as appreciations of 161.8%, 123.6%,
38.2% and 23.6% from the 1993, 2001, Aug 2005 and Nov 2005 lows. So, while
aggressive traders could attempt a fairly quick play on the short-side, my
primary focus is geared towards buying a multi-week/wave-[4] pullback. In
essence, because the pattern now indicates that the next “leg-up” (wave-[5])
will likely penetrate the key 8.98-9.175 resistance zone (nearby contract), our
eventual upside potential is now at 10.51-10.75 level. Key *support for the
March silver is now at 8.77-8.66 and 8.51-8.435.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/13/05
SOYBEANS: HRT/Hedgers (33%) were
stopped-out of short Jan beans at 5.86 for a loss of $1,125. Also, depending on
whether you sold Sunday night or Monday morning, traders had a loss of either
$488, or $50.
CORN: Traders/Hedgers (50%) use a stop on
short March corn at 2.14 3/4 (+$6,487).
WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (50%) use a stop on
short March wheat at 3.26 3/4 (+$2,200).
COFFEE: Traders/Hedgers place ALL STOPS on
long March coffee at 96.15 (+$1,200/+$1,706).
COCOA: HRT were stopped-out of short March
cocoa at 1488 for a loss of $270.
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